When reading different reports on climate and AGW (anthropogenic global warming) it can sometimes be confusing to decifer the results. The headlines almost always portray the most extreme interpretation or the worst case scenario. Some of this has to do with the political attitudes of many environmental reporters but also with the propensity to grab attention. Scientific-ky headlines don’t grab as much attention as “doom & gloom”.
One such case happened just the other week. The headline was “Hawaii will face more frequent hurricanes“. The headline is reasonable and true – based on a recent study. The only thing that is hard to figure out is how much will the possible increase in hurricane activity be. The average number of hurricanes in the Pacific every year is 85. Hawaii ends up with about 1 to 2 hurricanes per decade. Tim Li of the University of Honolulu used climate models to figure out how AGW might affect hurricanes in the Pacific. He found that by the end of this century, hurricanes in southeast Pacific will decrease by about 31 percent. In contrast, the model projected a 65 percent increase in hurricanes for the north central Pacific (the region around Hawaii).
So what does this mean for Hawaii? Let us use 1.5 hurricanes per decade for Hawaii (halfway between 1 to 2 per decade) to keep the math simple. Does a 65% increase in hurricane activity in the region around Hawaii mean they will now experience 2.5 hurricanes per decade (2 to 3 per decade). From the information provided, this would seem to be the case. If so, is it worth the ink? It is interesting but – I would say – not earth shattering. It is only about 1 more hurricane per decade. I doubt too many people in Hawaii are too worried. I imagine they might be more worried if the ocean levels rise another foot or two – as currently predicted.
One last thing I want to mention is that I enjoyed a nice 25 mile bike ride in the countryside around Marshfield today. It was the annual breast cancer awareness ride (walk and run this year as well) sponsored by the Sports Den. The owners Denny and Joan organized a great event and raised a lot of money for cancer research. Three cheers for Denny, Joan, and the Sports Den. The weather was awesome and I met a lot of great people. I will update the blog post with some pictures as soon as I find a computer that can read an SD card….lol. I will probably have to send/upload them from home.
Have a nice evening! Meteorologist Justin Loew.